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2014 GAP Report® – The Global Agricultural Productivity (GAP) Index
SPOTLIGHT ON REGIONAL PRODUCTIVITY GAPS
Regional differences in productivity gaps are dramatic and demonstrate why even a small falloff in the global rate of growth requires immediate attention. In the 2012 GAP Report®, GHI established a series of regional estimations comparing food demand indexes against projected agriculture output from TFP growth from 2000 to 2030. Figures 8 through 11 update these estimates for East Asia, South and Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and the Latin America/Caribbean regions.
Each region, with the exception of Latin America/Caribbean, shows insufficient growth in TFP to meet future estimated food and agriculture demand. If current trends continue to 2030, the gap in East Asia will be 33 percent; in South and Southeast Asia, 13 percent; and in Sub-Saharan Africa, 82 percent. These regions will need to significantly expand the resources they use in agricultural production and rely increasingly on imports to meet their growing food demands.
The role of trade will be critical in closing the gap between areas of high food and agriculture demand and those areas able to supply more food, feed, fiber and fuel. Continual improvement in global and regional supply chains and greater harmonization of trade rules across nations will assure that all countries have access to the agricultural goods they need and can help reduce price volatility. The Latin American region, and particularly the southern cone nations of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay (ABPU), comprise the largest net exporting zone for agriculture on the planet.42 Latin America is rapidly becoming the next global breadbasket,43 and the potential is immense for Sub- Saharan Africa to also dramatically increase food and agriculture production in future decades through sustainable practices. Investments to improve TFP will help low-income countries achieve food security and take advantage of global agricultural markets.
Figure 8: Food Demand Compared to Agricultural Output from TFP Growth in East Asia, 2000–2030
Figure 9: Food Demand Compared to Agricultural Output from TFP Growth in South and Southeast Asia, 2000–2030
Figure 10: Food Demand Compared to Agricultural Output from TFP Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–2030
Figure 11: Food Demand Compared to Agricultural Output from TFP Growth in Latin America/Caribbean, 2000–2030
Note on methodology: The projection of agricultural output from TFP growth uses Economic Research35S0ervice (2014) estimate of average TFP growth during 2002–2011 and assumes this is maintained through 2030. The projected growth in food demand uses UN estimates of population, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (PwC) estimates of GDP growth, and estimates of the income elasticity of food demand from Tweeten and Thompson (2008). The income elasticity of food demand indicates the share of the growth in per capita income that will be spent on food. Multiplying the income elasticity with the growth rate in per capita income gives the growth in per capita food consumption holding food prices fixed. Adding this to the population growth gives the total growth in food demand for a given price level.
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The Global Agricultural Productivity (GAP) IndexTM