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2013 GAP Report® – The GAP Index™
To keep pace with population growth and increasing demand, agricultural output will have to double by 2050. GHI calculates that TFP must grow by an average rate of at least 1.75 percent annually to double supply using current resource levels.10 From 2001 to 2010, the average annual rate of TFP growth was 1.81 percent.11
Figure 3: The GAP Index™ 2013 Tracking Total Factor Productivity (2000-2010)
Past performance does not guarantee future TFP growth rates will continue to rise.
Highly productive agriculture systems are the product of long-established agricultural research and extension programs. Investments in public research and the widespread adoption of new technologies and practices must expand to maintain future TFP growth. Even small declines in TFP growth will result in shortfalls of output needed to meet the demands of a growing world.
Increasing productivity — while protecting the environment, adapting to climate change, and improving access to sufficient nutritious foods worldwide — will require deliberate, forward-thinking investments in agricultural research and development, the application of science-based and information technologies, and adoption of supportive government policies.
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